Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) AZ Diamondbacks/MN Twins First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (+100; Odds via Caesars): 6:10 PM CT on Bally Sports North

I’ll be at this game, and of course my instinct is to root for the Twins and plenty of scoring. But I just can’t get there with this pitching matchup that I think creates a slow start tonight. I’m very impressed with Kenta Maeda and his progress coming back from injury, posting a 2.63 ERA in his past 7 starts with underlying metrics that suggest he’s improving.

This Arizona lineup has been just plain cold lately, averaging 3.9 runs per game since the All-Star break, and Maeda should be able to keep them cooled off. And what D’backs starter Ryne Nelson has been doing from a splits perspective is just plain wild, posting a 2.67 ERA on the road compared to 8.01 at home. His past 9 road starts are 7-2 under this number as a result, and I think we see more of the same tonight.

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1436-1270 ATS (+72.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.